2019 - Q2 Performance
The first half of they year has seen a great rebound after a very difficult 4th quarter of 2018. In the short term there has been a lot of concern over the China trade war and protectionism eating into corporate profitability. However we also see our President doing everything he can to bolster the economy (even trying to fire the Federal Reserve Chair). I believe his view is that if the economy is strong, he will get re-elected. So I am bullish for at least a year or so.
My signals are close to taking things more conservative but they are kind of hovering so I am not too concerned that they are going to change soon. Looking back at the last 12 months of performance the AGG is actually the best performer right now.
Performance as of June 31st was:
My signals are close to taking things more conservative but they are kind of hovering so I am not too concerned that they are going to change soon. Looking back at the last 12 months of performance the AGG is actually the best performer right now.
Performance as of June 31st was:
| 3 Mo | 1 Yr | 3 Yrs | ITD | ||
| Equal | 3.07% | 5.64% | -na- | 7.46% | |
| TA | 3.93% | 8.93% | -na- | 12.75% | |
| Enhanced | 2.82% | 5.63% | -na- | 6.92% | |
During the quarter Large Cap Equity was the best performer VONE, 4.2%. Bonds also did very well AGG, 2.8% as interest rates dropped on concerns of slowing growth. Small Cap equity VTWO, 2.0% and High Yield Debt JNK, 2.4% had lower but still good returns.
For the Enhanced portfolio, GOVT, 2.8%was neutral while other investments JXI, 1.0%, DVY, 2.3% and IEMG, 0.5% did not keep up with Large Cap Equities.
Blog Basics:
In this blog I share and discuss three portfolios.
The first is a "buy and hold" strategy that does not ever change. I call this the Equal portfolio because it is made up of four equal parts allocated to different asset classes. It is 1/4 in Large Cap Equity (Ticker VONE), 1/4 in Small Cap Equity (Ticker VTWO), 1/4 in Investment Grade Bonds (Ticker AGG), and 1/4 in Junk Bonds (Ticker JNK). The allocations never change. The only thing needed is to rebalance every so often as performance differences will cause the weights to get out of whack.
The second portfolio is a "tactical" portfolio. It is tactical because it adjusts the weights to the four asset classes above based on market conditions. I call this the TA portfolio. It can go 100% into any one asset class or be a mixture of them. 1/12th of this portfolio can change each month as I make a monthly call on what i expect will do best over the next year based on current market conditions. Historically I have picked the best asset class about 50% of the time, the second best about 25% of the time, the third best 18% of the time and the worst 7% of the time.
The third portfolio is also a "tactical" portfolio. I call it the Enhanced portfolio because I follow the same allocation as the TA portfolio but I try to pick other vehicles that will give a better return than the four basic ones used in the Equal portfolio. This allows for exposure to International Equities, Emerging Markets, and Commodities among others.
DISCLAIMER:
For the Enhanced portfolio, GOVT, 2.8%was neutral while other investments JXI, 1.0%, DVY, 2.3% and IEMG, 0.5% did not keep up with Large Cap Equities.
Blog Basics:
In this blog I share and discuss three portfolios.
The first is a "buy and hold" strategy that does not ever change. I call this the Equal portfolio because it is made up of four equal parts allocated to different asset classes. It is 1/4 in Large Cap Equity (Ticker VONE), 1/4 in Small Cap Equity (Ticker VTWO), 1/4 in Investment Grade Bonds (Ticker AGG), and 1/4 in Junk Bonds (Ticker JNK). The allocations never change. The only thing needed is to rebalance every so often as performance differences will cause the weights to get out of whack.
The second portfolio is a "tactical" portfolio. It is tactical because it adjusts the weights to the four asset classes above based on market conditions. I call this the TA portfolio. It can go 100% into any one asset class or be a mixture of them. 1/12th of this portfolio can change each month as I make a monthly call on what i expect will do best over the next year based on current market conditions. Historically I have picked the best asset class about 50% of the time, the second best about 25% of the time, the third best 18% of the time and the worst 7% of the time.
The third portfolio is also a "tactical" portfolio. I call it the Enhanced portfolio because I follow the same allocation as the TA portfolio but I try to pick other vehicles that will give a better return than the four basic ones used in the Equal portfolio. This allows for exposure to International Equities, Emerging Markets, and Commodities among others.
DISCLAIMER:
Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The writer of this blog owns many (long positions only), if not all, of the securities discussed in this blog. October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twain
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