Tactical Allocations

 Prediction: At some point Crypto Currencies will all become worthless. I know that this is a strong statement that will irritate many but a review of the facts about the underlying basis for its value can lead to no other conclusion. Crypto Currency Dynamics: The brilliance of cryptocurrency is in its structure which gets rid of the need for intermediaries in its monetary system. No Governments or banks needed.  This is brilliant. The cost of intermediaries on a system is high, I won't go into that but if you look it up there is plenty written about it. Demand for crypto is strong and growing. People are learning about this new interesting monetary tool and seeing some get rich and it is very enticing. People are justifiably curious and more and more people are dipping their toes into the space. The Crypto Currency Myth:  Supply of crypto is limited. This is the crypto lie that everyone seems to be swallowing. The whole valuation argument for crypto is that it...

The markets continue to recover and so it is large cap equity  VONE again.  One year ago we also added exposure to VONE so there are no trades for this month. Happy 2021!!! The Equal portfolio:   No Trades. The TA portfolio: No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio: No Trades. Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I own all of the securities suggested in all three portfolio's.    October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twain

Big update below because I have been negligent in keeping my spreadsheet up to date.  Below you will find the November 2nd trades, followed by the December 2nd trades.  I will follow up with a performance update through December 8th in a separate post.   Trades made on November 2nd 2020 Equal Weight Portfolio: No trades TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $448.52 Sold  94 shares of  AGG  at $117.33 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $11,028.79 Bought 91 shares of  VTWO  at $125.19 with $0 commission. Total cost $11,392.29 Ending cash balance of $85.02 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $843.59 Sold 367 shares of  GOVT   at $27.68 with $0.22 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,158.34 Bought 85 shares of  VTWO  at $125.19 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,641.15 Ending cash balance of $360.78 Trades made on December 1st 2020 Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $376.16 Bought 3 shares of AGG at $117...

 I apologize for not posting for awhile.  Below is some information in brief form to catch up: Market Overview: These markets are very strange.  It seems that recently the only thing one needs to monitor is how much stimulus the Government is providing.  If it is increasing then you want to be in equities, if it is decreasing you want to be in bonds. I do not believe this is healthy nor sustainable and it causes deep concern for me. Update on performance:  The enhanced portfolio continues to do well in recent months. Sept 1st Trades: Equal Weight Portfolio: No Trades in this portfolio TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $347.29 Sold  103 shares of  AGG  at $118.24 with $0.22 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $12,178.50 Bought 99 shares of  VTWO  at $126.26 with $0 commission. Total cost $12,499.74 Ending cash balance of $26.05 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $466.62 Sold 87 shares of AGG   at $118.24 with $0.21 SEC Fe...

I continue the move into small cap equity this month. In the  Enhanced portfolio  I will add to the Gabelli Global Small & Mid Cap Value Trust  GGZ . In the TA portfolio I will buy  VTWO . Both funds will be selling AGG . I will make these trades on Monday September 1, 2020 and will post the details of the trades later that day. Note: The sells are approximately 1/12th of the total portfolio and will be made later today. The Equal portfolio:   Buy as much JNK as I can with cash in the account. The TA portfolio: Sell 103 shares of  AGG Buy as much  VTWO  as possible with proceeds and cash  The Enhanced portfolio: Sell 87 shares of  AGG Buy as much  GGZ  as possible with proceeds and cash Allocation Prior to trades: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     34%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      9%   High Yield Debt (JNK):            33%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG)...

 Below are the trades made within the portfolio's on August 3rd 2020 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio. Equal Weight Portfolio: No Trades in this portfolio TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $281.82 Sold  98 shares of  AGG  at $119.25 with $0.22 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $11,686.28 Bought 99 shares of  VTWO  at $120.25 with $0 commission. Total cost $11,904.75 Ending cash balance of $63.35 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $466.38 Sold 368 shares of  GOVT   at $28.19 with $0.21 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,373.71 Bought xxxxx shares of  GGZ  at $9.51 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,831.89 Ending cash balance of $8.20 The Portfolios after the trades on 8/3/2020: Equal Weight Portfolio:   Cash = $226.25 VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 247 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 273 Shares TA Portfolio: Cash = $63.35 VONE   = 311 Shares AGG  = 390 Shares JNK ...

Markets have been very robust and my model says it is time to begin taking on small cap equity risk. Small cap has under performed large cap by a large amount over the last few years yet over longer historic periods it typically outperforms. In the Enhanced portfolio I am adding the Gabelli Global Small & Mid Cap Value Trust GGZ . It is a closed end fund that invests in global small cap companies. This adds a few risks relative to VTWO . First of all it includes non-US securities, it also has some leverage and focuses on value companies. I expect it will be less volatile and have a higher income (dividend) than VTWO . It is also currently selling at a 20% discount to the underlying NAV which adds additional capacity for out performance over time. I will make these trades on Monday August 3, 2020 and will post the details of the trades later that day. Note: The sells are approximately 1/12th of the total portfolio and will be made later today. The Equal portfolio:   N...

Below are the trades made within the portfolio's on July 1st 2020 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio. Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance $948.93 Bought 9 shares of JNK at 101.05 with $0 commission. Total cost $909.45 Ending cash balance of $39.48 TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $419.93 Sold 78 shares of  VONE  at $142.75 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $11,134.27 Bought 114 shares of  JNK  at $101.05 with $0 commission. Total cost $11,519.70 Ending cash balance of $34.50 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $540.89 Sold 76 shares of  VONE  at $142.75 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,848.77 Bought 722 shares of  DSL  at $15.77 with $0 commission. Total cost $11,385.94 Ending cash balance of $3.72 The Portfolios after the trades on 7/1/2020: Equal Weight Portfolio:   Cash = $39.48 VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 247 S...

We are still adding to our High Yield exposure this month. The markets are recovering and mid month is looked like we would be adding small cap however the risks changed and we are going to increase high yield bond exposure again. Note: The sells are approximately 1/12th of the total portfolio and will be made later today. The Equal portfolio:   Use cash in account to buy $948.93 of JNK The TA portfolio: Sell 78 shares of  VONE Buy as much JNK  as possible with proceeds and cash  The Enhanced portfolio: Sell 76 shares of  VONE Buy as much  DSL  as possible with proceeds and cash Target Allocation Prior to trades: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     41%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):            24%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):           34%   Equal Weight Portfolio:   VO...

Below are the trades made within the portfolio's on June 1st 2020 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio. Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance $554.73 No trades TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $49.19 Sold 78 shares of  VONE  at $140.06 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,924.45 Bought 108 shares of  JNK  at $101.59 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,971.72 Ending cash balance of $1.92 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $226.46 Sold 86 shares of  DVY  at $82.96 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $7134.33 Bought 502 shares of  DSL  at $14.65 with $0 commission. Total cost $7,354.30 Ending cash balance of $6.49 The Portfolios after the trades on 6/1/2020: Equal Weight Portfolio:   Cash = $554.73 VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 247 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: Cash = $1.92 VONE  ...

Below are the trades made within the portfolio's on May1st 2020 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio. Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance $554.73 No trades TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $156.00 Sold 77 shares of VONE  at $128.65 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $9,905.82 Bought 103 shares of  JNK  at $97.21 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,012.63 Ending cash balance of $49.19 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $47.48 Sold 76 shares of  VONE  at $128.65 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $9,777.17 Bought 786 shares of  DSL  at $12.49 with $0 commission. Total cost $9,817.14 Ending cash balance of $7.51 The Portfolios after the trades on 5/1/2020: Equal Weight Portfolio:   Cash = $554.73 VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 247 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: Cash = $49.19 VONE   = 467 ...

I am still not sure whether or not we have hit bottom. There is a lot of potential for bad news in the coming year. One key bankruptcy or another bout of the virus could put markets back into a tail spin. That said, risk in high yield bonds is attractive at these levels and so I will be adding to that exposure. Note: The sells are approximately 1/12th of the total portfolio. The Equal portfolio:   Beginning Cash $554.73 No trades The TA portfolio: Beginning Cash $156.00 Sell 77 shares of  VONE Buy as much JNK  as possible with proceeds and cash  The Enhanced portfolio: Beginning Cash $47.48  Sell 76 shares of  VONE Buy as much  DSL  as possible with proceeds and cash Allocation Prior to trades: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     53%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              9%    Inv. Grade Debt (...

Below are the trades made within the portfolio's on April 1st 2020 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio. Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $372.33 No trades TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $472.32 Sold 86 shares of  AGG  at $115.06 with $0.24 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $9,894.92 Bought 112 shares of  JNK  at $92.23 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,329.76 Ending cash balance of $37.48 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $942.91 Sold 320 shares of GOVT  at $28.14 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $9,004.57 Bought 2021 shares of HIX  at $4.92 with $0 commission. Total cost $9,943.32 Ending cash balance of $4.16 The Portfolios after the trades on 4/1/2020: Equal Weight Portfolio:   Cash = $372.33 VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 247 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: Cash = $37.48 VONE ...

Trades on April 1st: What a month! I have posted a couple of articles to help people in thinking about the incredibly fast drop in markets that happened in early March.  We have quickly moved to a place where it makes sense to begin adding risk again.  Usually this takes a few months but in this case we have gotten there in one. This is not me saying I think we have hit bottom.  I have done this long enough to know that calling the bottom is impossible. This is me saying that at the current prices, risk is well compensated and we should be adding risk to the portfolios. Note: The sells are 1/12th of the total portfolio. The Equal portfolio:   Beginning Cash $372.33 No trades The TA portfolio: Beginning Cash $472.32 Sell 86 shares of AGG Buy as much JNK as possible with proceeds and cash  The Enhanced portfolio: Beginning Cash $942.91  Sell 320 shares of GOVT Buy as much HIX as possible with proceeds and cash Current A...

Trades made within the portfolio's on March 2nd 2020 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio.  The fact that the market is up today seems to support the idea that Bernie Sanders standing in the Democratic primaries were having an impact on markets last week in addition to Coronavirus. Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $1,566.63 Bought 13 shares of  VTWO  at $119.90 with no commission.  Total cost $1,558.70 Ending cash balance $7.93 TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $1,298.65 Sold 78 shares of  VONE  at $138.86 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,830.85 Bought 104 shares of  AGG  at $113.75 with $0 commission. Total cost $12,092.08 Ending cash balance of $37.42 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $974.83 Sold 86 shares of  DVY  at $94.175 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $8,098.82. Bought 78 shares of  AGG  at $116.27 with $0 commission. ...

Trades on March 2nd. Finally there is something interesting happening in the markets, unfortunately it is not good for society. Last week fear took over and markets went into free-fall.  While these movements are scary they are also the times when fortunes are made, and lost. Coronavirus is the main thing people were talking about last month but there was also the rise of Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries that also had an impact. Typically you want to buy when markets are down but it is too early for that. The earnings impact of quarantines and the markets worry about the election will continue throughout this year. It is time to take a bit more risk off the table. If this continues to play out we will be adding risk again soon. There is also a good amount of cash built up in the portfolio's and so that will be included in the trades and used to rebalance the equal portfolio. The Equal portfolio:   Beginning Cash $1,566.63 Buy as much VTWO as possible...

No Trades on Feb 3rd. Markets continue to move.  This is the time when you do not want to get out too early and so I continue to hold the portfolio's where they are. The Equal portfolio:   No trades. The TA portfolio:  No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio:   No Trades. Current Allocation: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     67%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):           33%   Equal Weight Portfolio:   VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 234 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: VONE   = 622 Shares AGG  = 372 Shares Enhanced TA Portfolio: VONE  = 378 Shares IEMG  = 158 Shares DVY  = 172 Shares AGG  = 96 Shares GOVT  =  1055 Shares Disclaimer: Pas...

No Trades on Jan 1st. This is a very tough time for most investors.  The markets feel over priced (they do to me as well) and so people want to make a change.  The problem is that the markets can get much more over priced and so we wait for a signal that it is time to take risk down further.  Right now the risk in the active portfolios is slightly lower than the equal portfolio and I believe this is a good place to remain until we start to see signs of stress. I apologize for the late posting, I was on vacation last week.  I will post a year end performance review tomorrow. The Equal portfolio:   No trades. The TA portfolio:  No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio:   No Trades. Current Allocation: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     67%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):    ...

No Trades on Dec 2nd. The markets have been fluctuating for the past six months, one month indicators say to reduce risk the next they say to hold course. This has led to a slower than normal reduction in risk but it has benefited the portfolio returns.  This month we are showing to "hold the course" although I expect we will continue reducing risk in coming months. The Equal portfolio:   No trades. The TA portfolio:  No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio:   No Trades. Current Allocation: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     67%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):           33%   Equal Weight Portfolio:   VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 234 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: VONE   = 622 Shares AGG ...