July Flash Performance
YTD 2020 through June we have seen a sharp decline followed by a steep reversal.
This year has been a perfect example of why you want to stay fully invested and not trade based on emotions.
If you pulled out of the market when everyone was scared (as COVID became reality in March) you would have sold at low prices and missed a huge rally. By staying invested and being disciplined about the type of risk you are taking, which is what my approach does, it has allowed us to weather the storm and generate solid returns without taking on inordinate risk.
It is nice to see the Enhanced portfolio starting to produce better results.
Early results were hit by a bet on international equities and the US did much better. The recent positioning in low quality bonds has been quite beneficial.
June performance of the holdings in the various portfolios from the highest to lowest return: HIX 7.2%, DSL 6.7%, IEMG 5.7%, VTWO 4.1%, VONE 1.6%, AGG 0.5%, GOVT 0.0%, JNK -0.8%.
Thank you for following me.
Performance as of June 30, 2020 was:
Exposures in each of the three portfolios as of July 1st are:
This year has been a perfect example of why you want to stay fully invested and not trade based on emotions.
If you pulled out of the market when everyone was scared (as COVID became reality in March) you would have sold at low prices and missed a huge rally. By staying invested and being disciplined about the type of risk you are taking, which is what my approach does, it has allowed us to weather the storm and generate solid returns without taking on inordinate risk.It is nice to see the Enhanced portfolio starting to produce better results.
Early results were hit by a bet on international equities and the US did much better. The recent positioning in low quality bonds has been quite beneficial.
June performance of the holdings in the various portfolios from the highest to lowest return: HIX 7.2%, DSL 6.7%, IEMG 5.7%, VTWO 4.1%, VONE 1.6%, AGG 0.5%, GOVT 0.0%, JNK -0.8%.
Thank you for following me.
Performance as of June 30, 2020 was:
In this blog I share and discuss three portfolios.
The first is a "buy and hold" strategy that does not ever change. I call this the Equal portfolio because it is made up of four equal parts allocated to different asset classes. It is 1/4 in Large Cap Equity (Ticker VONE), 1/4 in Small Cap Equity (Ticker VTWO), 1/4 in Investment Grade Bonds (Ticker AGG), and 1/4 in Junk Bonds (Ticker JNK). The allocations never change. The only thing needed is to rebalance every so often as performance differences will cause the weights to get out of whack.
The second portfolio is a "tactical" portfolio. It is tactical because it adjusts the weights to the four asset classes above based on market conditions. I call this the TA portfolio. It can go 100% into any one asset class or be a mixture of them. 1/12th of this portfolio can change each month as I make a monthly call on what I expect will do best over the next year based on current market conditions. Historically I have picked the best asset class about 50% of the time, the second best about 25% of the time, the third best 18% of the time and the worst 7% of the time.
The third portfolio is also a "tactical" portfolio. I call it the Enhanced portfolio because I follow the same allocation as the TA portfolio but I try to pick other vehicles that will give a better return than the four basic ones used in the Equal portfolio. This allows for exposure to active management, International Equities, Emerging Markets, and Commodities among others.
DISCLAIMER:
The first is a "buy and hold" strategy that does not ever change. I call this the Equal portfolio because it is made up of four equal parts allocated to different asset classes. It is 1/4 in Large Cap Equity (Ticker VONE), 1/4 in Small Cap Equity (Ticker VTWO), 1/4 in Investment Grade Bonds (Ticker AGG), and 1/4 in Junk Bonds (Ticker JNK). The allocations never change. The only thing needed is to rebalance every so often as performance differences will cause the weights to get out of whack.
The second portfolio is a "tactical" portfolio. It is tactical because it adjusts the weights to the four asset classes above based on market conditions. I call this the TA portfolio. It can go 100% into any one asset class or be a mixture of them. 1/12th of this portfolio can change each month as I make a monthly call on what I expect will do best over the next year based on current market conditions. Historically I have picked the best asset class about 50% of the time, the second best about 25% of the time, the third best 18% of the time and the worst 7% of the time.
The third portfolio is also a "tactical" portfolio. I call it the Enhanced portfolio because I follow the same allocation as the TA portfolio but I try to pick other vehicles that will give a better return than the four basic ones used in the Equal portfolio. This allows for exposure to active management, International Equities, Emerging Markets, and Commodities among others.
DISCLAIMER:
Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The writer of this blog owns many (long positions only), if not all, of the securities discussed in this blog. October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twain
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