March 28, 2019 Allocation

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April Allocation:

Markets continued to rebound but seem to be slowing. Earnings growth concerns and corporate debt levels are both weights on the market right now.  I am also hearing a bit of talk about "Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)". One of the scary tenants of MMT is that the Government can spend as much as it wants (no debt limit on governments) because they can print money.  We have many examples that show that this leads to hyper inflation. I have talked with people who have lived through hyper inflation and it is not something we want to experience.

MMT sounds a lot like the classic "Its different this time" argument that almost always signals that we are close to a market peak. It is never different this time and those who get sucked into believing that it is always pay a dear price.

My signals are saying Large Cap Equity again. Although I still believe this is a lull before a storm. Because we bought VONE a year ago, I will maintain that exposure. There will be no trades this month.

Updated Allocations:
  • Large Cap Equity (VONE):    83%  
  • Small Cap Equity (VTWO):     0%  
  • High Yield Debt (JNK):             0%   
  • Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):          17%  

No trades on April 1st.

The Equal portfolio: The cash balance is under $1000 so we will not make any trades for this portfolio.

The TA portfolio: No trades in this account as I bought VONE a year ago and that is the call again for this month. 

The Enhanced portfolio: No trades in this account as I bought VONE a year ago and that is the call again for this month. 

Disclaimer:
Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I own all of the securities suggested in all three portfolio's.  October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twain

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