Tactical Allocations

January Allocation: On December 6th, 3 trading days after my last allocation update, the signal changed. It then said to take the portfolio a bit more conservative. I wish that had changed a few days earlier so some of the portfolio would have been protected from December's steep decline. As it is, the conservative signal is still there so for the first time in quite a while we have a change to the portfolios. Trades will take place on January 1st. Large Cap Equity (VONE):     92%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):             8%   The Equal portfolio:   The cash balance is over $1000 so we will make some trades to put it to work.  Current allocations only have 24% in Small Cap Equity and Junk Bonds so we will be buying an equal dollar amount of Small Cap Equity (ticker VTWO ) and Junk bonds (ticker JNK ). The TA portfolio:  I will sell 1/12th of the VONE in the portfolio and use tha

QUESTION:  What is the track record of realized investments? One year performance as of November 30th (in order):   VONE (5.8%) ,  VTWO (0.6%) ,   JNK (-0.6%) ,   AGG(-1.4%) . TA:   Position taken one year ago:  VONE Rank:   1st History 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Number of Bets:   2  5  0  0  % of Bets:   29%  71%   0%  0 % Enhanced:  Position taken one year ago:  DSEEX (5.9%) Rank :  +  Positive History     +   =   - Number of Bets:     2   1   4 % of Bets:   29%  14%  57% ANSWER:  The one year look back in November is perfect. The TA fund picked the best asset class over the last year and the Enhanced fund picked an even better active alternative. 

Sorry for the huge delay in posting November Performance. I feel that I have been overwhelming people with data so I am going to change it up a bit.  Most months I am just going to share the long term performance of the product and talk a little about what is or is not working. At quarter end I will continue to give a full detailed report, like I have been doing on a monthly basis to this point. So Performance as of November 30th was:          1 Mo         3 Mo        1 Yr     3 Yrs     ITD Equal           0.62%        -4.83%      1.25%      -na-     5.24% TA           1.63%        -4.67 %       5.72%      -na-    11.74% Enhanced           0.99%        -3.48%      -0.88%      -na-      4.85% Commentary:  The portfolio is acting well. Performance has been hit in recent months but this seems to be mostly due to a lowering of growth expectations as opposed to a worry about the US entering a recession. Leading economic indicators remain strong but corporate deb

This blog to date has focused on a long term strategy that had added a lot of value for me. For me, sharing that is the reason for doing the blog. As I talk to people, they seem more interested in the stories about investing and in looking at individual companies and themes. I hear a lot about these as well and am going to start posting, on an add hoc basis, some of these types of insights.  I will maintain a discipline of creating a timeline when I share an insight and then reviewing the outcome at the appointed time.

Equal Weight Portfolio: No Trades TA Portfolio: No Trades Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance on November 1st = $114.12 Sold all remaining shares of DSEEX (609.3071) at $15.81, with $7 commission = $9,626.15 Bought 76 shares of VONE at $127.96, with $7 commission = $9,731.96 Cash after transaction = $8.31 DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.  October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twain

Monthly Portfolio Update: Although the markets seem scary right now, there is no change to the tactical allocation for November but there are trades to be done. Large Cap Equity (VONE):   100%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):             0%   The Equal portfolio:   No Trades. The TA portfolio:  No trades.  The Enhanced portfolio:  The purchase I made one year ago was  DSEEX .  I will sell the rest of that exposure and buy  VONE .   Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I own all of the securities suggested in all three portfolio's.    October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twa