Tactical Allocations

Monthly Portfolio Update: There, again, is no change to the tactical allocation for September:   Large Cap Equity (VONE):   100%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):             0%   The Equal portfolio:   There are no trades for this account. The TA portfolio:  There will be no trades in this portfolio.  The Enhanced portfolio:  The purchase I made one year ago was JXI.  This is a global utilities ETF.  I am going to sell 218 shares of JXI and use the proceeds and cash in the account to buy VONE.  Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I own all of the securities suggested in all three portfolio's.    October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, Novemb

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery" ~ James Joyce I decided to do two insight posts this month as I have missed a couple of the past months. In statistics there is a test for hypothesis which looks at the hypothesis prediction and the actual outcomes over many experiences.  The less errors the more robust the hypothesis. I decided to do this for my model going back as far as I could. I was curious about my ability to protect in down markets and yet still take advantage of up markets. For my review I called any year where fixed income did the best as a down market and all other years up markets. In alignment with this I looked at my calls and if I had called for a fixed income investment then that was a defensive portfolio, all others were aggressive portfolios. The results are: Total periods: 359 Analysis:  These results show what I expected.  I am capturing 96% of the strong markets (259 of the 271 strong market periods) while still avoiding 27% of th

“Great works are performed not by strength but by perseverance" ~ Samuel Johnson   Patience and perseverance seem to be increasingly scarce and disregarded today.  Technology has given us quick access to ease and comfort; often at the touch of a button.  We get irritated when it takes 5 seconds for a screen to load or if we have to wait in line or for a package to be delivered.  In contrast, I recently had a wonderful meal at a French restaurant that was all about waiting. The waiter took time to explain the preparation of each course in detail. They described the processes the chef went through to develop the unique textures and flavors. Many of the servings were barely a mouthful but the chef and his team had taken weeks to prepare them. They were able to get textures and flavors out of ingredients that I would not have thought possible. Every step was timed precisely, too early or late and the result would not have been pleasing. When done correctly, the outcome wa

COMMENTARY: Equal Portfolio:   This portfolio is invested about 25% in each of four asset classes ( investment grade debt AGG (-0.2%) ,  high yield debt JNK (1.3%) ,  large cap equity VONE (3.4%)  and  small cap equity VTWO (1.6%) ). In Juuly it returned 1.9%. It is the baseline or benchmark against which I judge the other portfolios. TA portfolio:  This portfolio is 100% in   large cap US equities VONE (3.4%) . So, in July it returned 3.9% (due to a dividend payment). Enhanced portfolio:     This portfolio returned 2.5% in July.  global utilities JXI (1.8%) ,  global consumer staples KXI (3.2%) ,  US equity DSEEX (4.2%) ,  commodities DBCMX (-2.5%) , emerging markets (2.8%) . Commodities were the main detractor. Co lor significance: Red           =   Small cap equity  Orange     =   Large cap equity Purple      =   High yield debt Green       =   Investment grade debt (In parenthesis is the return for the period being discussed) PERFORMANCE: Cumulat

Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance on August 1st = $1231.02 Purchased 6 shares of AGG at $105.69 per share, $7 commission, total cost $641.14 Purchased 16 shares of JNK at $35.79 per share, $7 commission, total cost $579.64 Cash balance after trades $10.23 TA Portfolio: Cash balance on August 1st = $573.46 No trades Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance on August 1st = $291.95 No trades DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.  October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twain