Posts

Crypto Currency - Just A Worthless Commodity

 Prediction: At some point Crypto Currencies will all become worthless. I know that this is a strong statement that will irritate many but a review of the facts about the underlying basis for its value can lead to no other conclusion. Crypto Currency Dynamics: The brilliance of cryptocurrency is in its structure which gets rid of the need for intermediaries in its monetary system. No Governments or banks needed.  This is brilliant. The cost of intermediaries on a system is high, I won't go into that but if you look it up there is plenty written about it. Demand for crypto is strong and growing. People are learning about this new interesting monetary tool and seeing some get rich and it is very enticing. People are justifiably curious and more and more people are dipping their toes into the space. The Crypto Currency Myth:  Supply of crypto is limited. This is the crypto lie that everyone seems to be swallowing. The whole valuation argument for crypto is that it is limited and no o

January 1st 2021 Allocation

The markets continue to recover and so it is large cap equity  VONE again.  One year ago we also added exposure to VONE so there are no trades for this month. Happy 2021!!! The Equal portfolio:   No Trades. The TA portfolio: No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio: No Trades. Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. I own all of the securities suggested in all three portfolio's.    October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twain

December, 2020 Performance Flash

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Long overdue performance update. Markets have been going strong based mostly on Government stimulus.  While this makes me very nervous, my model says things look good and so it has been adding risk  Performance Charts: Cumulative Returns show the Enhanced portfolio made some strong gains in November and is close to matching the TA portfolio in the long run. Recent returns have strongly favored the Enhanced portfolio as all of its picks have outperformed over the past 3 months.

November 2nd and December 1st Trades 2020

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Big update below because I have been negligent in keeping my spreadsheet up to date.  Below you will find the November 2nd trades, followed by the December 2nd trades.  I will follow up with a performance update through December 8th in a separate post.   Trades made on November 2nd 2020 Equal Weight Portfolio: No trades TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $448.52 Sold  94 shares of  AGG  at $117.33 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $11,028.79 Bought 91 shares of  VTWO  at $125.19 with $0 commission. Total cost $11,392.29 Ending cash balance of $85.02 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $843.59 Sold 367 shares of  GOVT   at $27.68 with $0.22 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,158.34 Bought 85 shares of  VTWO  at $125.19 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,641.15 Ending cash balance of $360.78 Trades made on December 1st 2020 Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $376.16 Bought 3 shares of AGG at $117.81 with $0 commission. Total cost $353.43 Ending cash bala

December 1st Allocation

The markets have recovered to the point where I am now moving back into large cap equity VONE .  I will be selling AGG  as that was the purchase one year ago and will use the proceeds to buy VONE in both the TA  and  Enhanced  portfolios . I will make these trades today, Monday November 2, 2020 and will post the details of the trades later today. Note: The sells are approximately 1/12th of the total portfolio and will be made tomorrow. This will bring my Investment Grade Bond holdings to 0%. The Equal portfolio:   Buy as much  AGG  as I can with cash in the account. The TA portfolio: Sell 95 shares of  AGG Buy as much  VONE  as possible with proceeds and cash  The Enhanced portfolio: Sell 87 shares of AGG Buy as much  VONE  as possible with proceeds and cash Allocation Prior to trades: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     26%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):     34%   High Yield Debt (JNK):            32%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):           8%   Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of fu

November 2, 2020 Allocation

 I continue the move into small cap equity this month. In both the TA and Enhanced portfolios  I will buy  VTWO . TA will be selling AGG .and the Enhanced portfolio will be selling the rest of GOVT . I will make these trades today, Monday November 2, 2020 and will post the details of the trades later today. Note: The sells are approximately 1/12th of the total portfolio and will be made later today. The Equal portfolio:   Buy as much  JNK  as I can with cash in the account. The TA portfolio: Sell 94 shares of  AGG Buy as much  VTWO  as possible with proceeds and cash  The Enhanced portfolio: Sell 367 shares of  GOVT Buy as much  VTWO  as possible with proceeds and cash Allocation Prior to trades: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     34%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):     17%   High Yield Debt (JNK):            32%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):           16%   Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not

Catch Up - Sept Trades, Oct Allocation and Trades 2020

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 I apologize for not posting for awhile.  Below is some information in brief form to catch up: Market Overview: These markets are very strange.  It seems that recently the only thing one needs to monitor is how much stimulus the Government is providing.  If it is increasing then you want to be in equities, if it is decreasing you want to be in bonds. I do not believe this is healthy nor sustainable and it causes deep concern for me. Update on performance:  The enhanced portfolio continues to do well in recent months. Sept 1st Trades: Equal Weight Portfolio: No Trades in this portfolio TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $347.29 Sold  103 shares of  AGG  at $118.24 with $0.22 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $12,178.50 Bought 99 shares of  VTWO  at $126.26 with $0 commission. Total cost $12,499.74 Ending cash balance of $26.05 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $466.62 Sold 87 shares of AGG   at $118.24 with $0.21 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,286.67 Bought 1,049 shares of  G