Tactical Allocations

Below are the trades made within the portfolio's on May1st 2020 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio. Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance $554.73 No trades TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $156.00 Sold 77 shares of VONE  at $128.65 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $9,905.82 Bought 103 shares of  JNK  at $97.21 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,012.63 Ending cash balance of $49.19 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $47.48 Sold 76 shares of  VONE  at $128.65 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $9,777.17 Bought 786 shares of  DSL  at $12.49 with $0 commission. Total cost $9,817.14 Ending cash balance of $7.51 The Portfolios after the trades on 5/1/2020: Equal Weight Portfolio:   Cash = $554.73 VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 247 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: Cash = $49.19 VONE   = 467 ...

I am still not sure whether or not we have hit bottom. There is a lot of potential for bad news in the coming year. One key bankruptcy or another bout of the virus could put markets back into a tail spin. That said, risk in high yield bonds is attractive at these levels and so I will be adding to that exposure. Note: The sells are approximately 1/12th of the total portfolio. The Equal portfolio:   Beginning Cash $554.73 No trades The TA portfolio: Beginning Cash $156.00 Sell 77 shares of  VONE Buy as much JNK  as possible with proceeds and cash  The Enhanced portfolio: Beginning Cash $47.48  Sell 76 shares of  VONE Buy as much  DSL  as possible with proceeds and cash Allocation Prior to trades: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     53%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              9%    Inv. Grade Debt (...

In Q1 2020, COVID 19 hit the world and the markets. The lack of small cap stocks was very beneficial in the TA and Enhanced portfolio's.  The portfolio's have lower risk in them than the equal weighted portfolio and this was demonstrated in this quarters returns.  During the quarter, the four asset class returns were  VONE -20.50%, VTWO -30.75%, JNK -13.08%, AGG 3.04%. Over the past 12 months returns were  VONE -9.73%, VTWO -25.03%, JNK -7.19%, AGG 8.82% Small cap stocks ( VTWO ) tend to do poorly at the end of the market cycle and during a crash. After we move through the bottom of this cycle we will begin adding them back into our portfolio as they are usually the stars during a rebound.  We added high yield ( JNK ) this month as the yields are very beneficial when equity markets are low and they tend to rebound very quickly when the market begins to heal. Performance as of March 31, 2020 was: Blog Basics: In this ...

Below are the trades made within the portfolio's on April 1st 2020 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio. Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $372.33 No trades TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $472.32 Sold 86 shares of  AGG  at $115.06 with $0.24 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $9,894.92 Bought 112 shares of  JNK  at $92.23 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,329.76 Ending cash balance of $37.48 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $942.91 Sold 320 shares of GOVT  at $28.14 with $0.23 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $9,004.57 Bought 2021 shares of HIX  at $4.92 with $0 commission. Total cost $9,943.32 Ending cash balance of $4.16 The Portfolios after the trades on 4/1/2020: Equal Weight Portfolio:   Cash = $372.33 VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 247 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: Cash = $37.48 VONE ...

Trades on April 1st: What a month! I have posted a couple of articles to help people in thinking about the incredibly fast drop in markets that happened in early March.  We have quickly moved to a place where it makes sense to begin adding risk again.  Usually this takes a few months but in this case we have gotten there in one. This is not me saying I think we have hit bottom.  I have done this long enough to know that calling the bottom is impossible. This is me saying that at the current prices, risk is well compensated and we should be adding risk to the portfolios. Note: The sells are 1/12th of the total portfolio. The Equal portfolio:   Beginning Cash $372.33 No trades The TA portfolio: Beginning Cash $472.32 Sell 86 shares of AGG Buy as much JNK as possible with proceeds and cash  The Enhanced portfolio: Beginning Cash $942.91  Sell 320 shares of GOVT Buy as much HIX as possible with proceeds and cash Current A...

We have seen historic moves in the markets this month. Volatility is back in spades. So how can we best weather the storm?  Is there a way we can benefit?  What should we learn for next time? These are the times when fortunes are made... and lost. Although we cannot change the past, where you started this downturn has a lot to do with what you are able to do now that we are in the middle of it. If your portfolio was 100% equity before the downturn: You are in a tough position. Nobody knows when this is going to turn.  It could start back up tomorrow or go down another 30%. What drives that is unknown (when will they have a vaccine, better treatments, better ways to stop the spread). Selling now is not prudent you are best off enduring the pain. What you can do is put new money into the markets. Look at what is down the most and try to increase the amounts you are putting into those investments. New money is your key to success and will be far more beneficial th...

Markets are down a huge amount in the past two weeks (about 20% for US Equities) - So what are we to do? S&P 500 recent price performance Lets look a bit at what drives short term movements in the markets and then we can figure out what to do. First of all: Fear and Greed drive market movements. When we are fearful of the future, prices go down and when we are greedy (or confident) they go up. Unfortunately following the herd is almost always the worst thing you can do. If you want to be successful you must lead the herd.   Secondly:  As much as they want you to believe the opposite, the news does not drive the market . The news reports what happened in the market. If markets are down, they do not focus on what went well that day, they focus on what might have caused the downturn. The opposite is true when markets go up.  The news causes up and down cycles to go farther than they otherwise would. Thirdly: When you are looking for returns in inve...