Tactical Allocations

Trades on March 2nd. Finally there is something interesting happening in the markets, unfortunately it is not good for society. Last week fear took over and markets went into free-fall.  While these movements are scary they are also the times when fortunes are made, and lost. Coronavirus is the main thing people were talking about last month but there was also the rise of Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries that also had an impact. Typically you want to buy when markets are down but it is too early for that. The earnings impact of quarantines and the markets worry about the election will continue throughout this year. It is time to take a bit more risk off the table. If this continues to play out we will be adding risk again soon. There is also a good amount of cash built up in the portfolio's and so that will be included in the trades and used to rebalance the equal portfolio. The Equal portfolio:   Beginning Cash $1,566.63 Buy as much VTWO as possible...

In 2019, the markets rebounded after a large selloff in Q4 of 2018.  Market strength has continued despite many concerned voices about high valuations. In the  TA portfolio , the decision to focus on large cap stocks was very beneficial in 2019.  Of the four options,  VONE  was the top performer gaining 31.12%. The small cap  VTWO  was next advancing 25.81%. Lower quality bonds  JNK  were up 14.88% and investment grade bonds AGG returned 8.46%. In the  Enhanced portfolio , we replaced AGG with  GOVT  which returned 7.36% and underperformed AGG  by 1.1%. A small portion of  VONE  was replaced with   DVY  and  IEMG  both of which detracted from returns.   DVY  returned 22.62% and  IEMG  returned 17.79%.  Both great returns but far behind  VONE . The earlier inversion of the yield curve, the high levels of corporate debt, and the euphoric rise and fal...

No Trades on Feb 3rd. Markets continue to move.  This is the time when you do not want to get out too early and so I continue to hold the portfolio's where they are. The Equal portfolio:   No trades. The TA portfolio:  No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio:   No Trades. Current Allocation: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     67%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):           33%   Equal Weight Portfolio:   VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 234 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: VONE   = 622 Shares AGG  = 372 Shares Enhanced TA Portfolio: VONE  = 378 Shares IEMG  = 158 Shares DVY  = 172 Shares AGG  = 96 Shares GOVT  =  1055 Shares Disclaimer: Pas...

No Trades on Jan 1st. This is a very tough time for most investors.  The markets feel over priced (they do to me as well) and so people want to make a change.  The problem is that the markets can get much more over priced and so we wait for a signal that it is time to take risk down further.  Right now the risk in the active portfolios is slightly lower than the equal portfolio and I believe this is a good place to remain until we start to see signs of stress. I apologize for the late posting, I was on vacation last week.  I will post a year end performance review tomorrow. The Equal portfolio:   No trades. The TA portfolio:  No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio:   No Trades. Current Allocation: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     67%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):    ...

No Trades on Dec 2nd. The markets have been fluctuating for the past six months, one month indicators say to reduce risk the next they say to hold course. This has led to a slower than normal reduction in risk but it has benefited the portfolio returns.  This month we are showing to "hold the course" although I expect we will continue reducing risk in coming months. The Equal portfolio:   No trades. The TA portfolio:  No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio:   No Trades. Current Allocation: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     67%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):           33%   Equal Weight Portfolio:   VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 234 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: VONE   = 622 Shares AGG ...

No Trades on Nov 1st. The markets have been fluctuating for the past six months, one month indicators say to reduce risk the next they say to hold course. This has led to a slower than normal reduction in risk but it has benefited the portfolio returns.  This month we are back to "hold the course" although I expect we will continue reducing risk in coming months. The Equal portfolio:   No trades. The TA portfolio:  No Trades. The Enhanced portfolio:   No Trades. Current Allocation: Large Cap Equity (VONE):     67%   Small Cap Equity (VTWO):      0%   High Yield Debt (JNK):              0%    Inv. Grade Debt (AGG):           33%   Equal Weight Portfolio:   VONE  = 225 Shares VTWO  = 234 Shares AGG  = 248 Shares JNK  = 264 Shares TA Portfolio: VONE   = 622 Shares AGG ...

Trades made within the portfolio's on October 4th 2019 followed by a listing of the current holdings in each portfolio. Equal Weight Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $1,145.36 Bought 10 shares of JNK at $107.60 with no commission (There are now many options with $0 commision i.e. TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Robinhood). Total cost $1,076.00. Ending cash balance $69.36 TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $141.09 Sold 78 shares of  VONE  at $133.82 with $0.20 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,437.76. Bought 93 shares of  AGG  at $113.75 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,578.75. Ending cash balance of $0.10 Enhanced TA Portfolio: Cash balance prior to trade $361.35 Sold 76 shares of VONE at $133.82 with $0.20 SEC Fee. Total proceeds $10,170.12. Bought 396 shares of GOVT at $26.55 with $0 commission. Total cost $10,513.80. Ending cash balance of $17.67 The Portfolios as of 10/4/2019: Equal Weight Portfolio:   Cash = $69...