Tactical Allocations

Monthly Portfolio Update: There is no change to the tactical allocation for June (I hope you are not getting bored but investing is not about moving around unnecessarily, that would be expensive) ; The allocation remains:   Large Cap Equity:   100%   Small Cap Equity:     0%   High Yield Debt:        0%    Inv. Grade Debt:        0%   The Equal portfolio:   There will be no trades in the equal weighted portfolio. The TA portfolio:  There will be no trades in this portfolio either.  The Enhanced portfolio:  The portfolio has been active for a full year now. The original investment in DSEUX has not done well so I will sell out of one more section of that. I have been getting killed by my international exposure (the enhanced portfolio has not been very "enhanced").  I will reduce this bias by buying into VONE. I will sell 1/2 of the DSEUX and buy as much VONE as possible with the proceeds and cash on June 1, 2018.  I will post the trade detail

It's what you choose to believe that makes you the person you are. ~   Karen Marie Moning Beliefs drive actions and actions build reputation. In the investment world, a correct set of beliefs are critical to generating above average results. The difficulty is that there are many false or misunderstood investment beliefs floating around - don't trust everything you read. Part of the problem is that an investment belief that works today, often will not work tomorrow. There is an odd dynamic in investing where the more popular an investment belief (or strategy) becomes, the less benefit it produces. This is a big part of why the investment world is so difficult to navigate. In this post I would like to share a core investment belief that has helped me develop the investment system I share in this blog. It is definitely not common or mainstream, so I am not worried that it will go away soon. The belief came when I ran a chart of the cumulative returns of the coupon ret

PERFORMANCE: Cumulative returns of each of the strategies as though you had invested $100,000 in them at the beginning of the blog. In April the  Equal weighted portfolio   returned 0.2%. This portfolio is my version of a buy and hold portfolio and I use it as my benchmark for the two portfolio's below.  The  TA portfolio  performed a little better, returning 0.3%. This portfolio invests in the same securities as the Equal weighted portfolio but actively allocates by adjusting how much is invested in each asset class. The  Enhanced portfolio  had the best results, returning 1.3%. This portfolio uses the allocation of the TA portfolio and seeks to enhance those returns by buying funds that access the asset class in a different way. COMMENTARY: Equal Portfolio:   This portfolio is invested about 25% in each of four asset classes ( investment grade debt ,  high yield debt ,  large cap equity  and  small cap equity ). It is the baseline or benc

MORNINGSTAR PEER RANKS: Often the most difficult test is to look at a fund against its peers. How does performance stack up against the other active managers who are trying to run a similar strategy? I went out to Morningstar and found a Tactical Allocation Peer group ( you can see it here ). These numbers will be more meaningful as my strategy gets a longer history and I can compare 1, 3 and eventually 5 year numbers. Next month I will be have one year numbers to show. As of April 30, 2018: 1 Mo 3 Mo 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs Equal   55%   71%   -na-   -na-   -na- TA    61%   18 %   -na-   -na-   -na- Enhanced   93%   58%   -na-   -na-   -na- # of Funds    301   300    288    236    179 Max    2.33%   3.18%  19.89%  10.77%  10.08% Min   -3.40% -16.18% -12.25% -12.85%   -9.71% COMMENTARY: The Enhanced Fund was back on top this month and it is nice to see almost all of the numbers above 50%. The key driver was the difficulties in the US Equity markets as volatility retur

TRADES  (performed on May 1st) : Equal Weight Portfolio: Beginning cash $489.18 No trades TA Portfolio: Beginning cash $58.62 No Trades Enhanced TA Portfolio: Beginning cash $166.74 Sold 704.8415 shares of DSEUX at $11.36 per share (I put this order in to sell $8007 which is 1/3rd of what I have left), $7 commission, total proceeds $8000.00 Purchased 83 shares of KXI at $97.20 per share, $7 commission, total cost $8074.60  Ending Cash $92.14 DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  This strategy is presented for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.  October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in.  The others are July, January, September, April, November, May , March, June, December, August and February. ~ Mark Twain